Season Recap - Week 4

1. Akshay

Season Story: Akshay’s had an amazing start to the season, sitting at 4-0 on the year, emerging victorious in 3 close games to start the season. He currently averages roughly 8 points per game over league average, almost all attributable to his sensational QB play, as Mahomes is averaging 29 points per game. He sits pretty middle of the pack at every other position but has a strong core with Mahomes, Najee Harris, D’Andre Swift, and Mike Williams.

Team MVP: Patrick Mahomes - Even during a time that QBs have become more commoditized and less valued in fantasy, Patrick Mahomes is proving to be one of the most valuable players in Fantasy Football, scoring an insane 8.4 points per game more than the QB12 on the year. Considering the fact that Akshay’s margin of victory over the first 3 weeks of the season was less than 8.4 points each week, Mahomes has been a gamechanger for Akshay and is as set and forget as they come.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

66% of the time, he’s still chilling with a winning record. Solid.

If other teams had his schedule:

Damn Akshay’s low key had a brutal schedule to start the year, he’s the only team that would’ve been undefeated with his schedule and only 2 other teams would have a winning record.

Unbelievable start to the season has you at the top of the league undefeated at 4-0. Obviously a resounding success so far - how would you assess your season to this point?

The season has so far surpassed my expectations. My goal is to not finish last but that doesn’t mean I don’t have my sights set on more. I’ll just keep rolling and trust the process and my team.

A well-balanced roster has you middle of the pack at every position with no glaring weaknesses. What’s the plan for the roster moving forward - do you like the balance or will you try to invest in elite talent to get to the top of the league at one or two positions?

As of now, I like my team a lot. At 4-0, I feel like I have little need to change things up too much but I’ll evaluate as the season moves on see if any blockbuster moves are needed.

You’ve failed to hit the 5-win threshold in either of the last two years, but heading into week 5, you’re already on the brink of breaking that barrier. How do you capitalize on this amazing start and ensure that you not only secure that elusive fifth win but also a high seed in the playoffs?

I just have to stay grounded. I can’t make any stupid trades or rash decisions. I’ll need to stay active on the waiver wire and keep monitoring my team. I’ll also keep an eye out for good trade opportunities and just keep up with key injuries or other notable information around the league.

2. Sitarams

Season Story: A true model of consistency, the Sitarams have scored over 120 points every week this year, their only loss coming in a true nailbiter to start the year. Their engine has been their standout WR trio in Kupp, McLaurin, and Thielen, and their team as a whole is scoring over 15 points per game over league average.

Team MVP: Cooper Kupp - A massive revelation this season, no one could’ve foreseen a top-10 season from Kupp coming into the year, let alone having Kupp as the overall WR1 on the year scoring 11 points per game more than the WR30 on the year. Kupp is anchoring a WR corps that is averaging almost 20 points per game more than league average.

Schedule Analysis

If they had other teams schedules:

In no scenario would they have had a losing record to start the year. That’s dominance.

If other teams had their schedule:

Only 3 other teams would’ve had a winning record to start the season with the Sitarams schedule.

Phenomenal start to the year has you at 3-1 with the highest points scored in the league and your only loss coming at the hands of the only undefeated team in the league. How do you assess your season so far?

I think we’ve had a solid start so far, been very consistent but our RB 1 and QB consistency is an area that needs to be cleaned up for us. I feel like this season is off to a great start as our team has consistently been among the highest scorers every week and the highest scorer so far this year.

Your roster does seem to be pretty top-heavy with top-2 WR/TE groups but bottom-5 everywhere else. What’s the plan for the roster moving forward - are you trying to spread the wealth a little to the other positions or riding your starts at WR/TE? How do you capitalize on this start and ensure a spot in the playoffs?

Well we expect moderate regression from our WRs, Waller is playing exactly how we expect if not slightly worse. We also expect an uptick in Taylor’s production especially his red zone efficiency. At the end of the day we can only hope these factors even out and we continue playing at a similar level. Although top heavy rn, we feel like our roster has the tools to be the most well rounded team as the season carries on. Herbert has been that top tier QB the past 2 weeks, and JT has showed the RB1 flashes last week. Add that to an overqualified RB2, the best WR group in the league, and a top 2 tight end - we feel as though we are in a comfortable place in terms of making it to the playoffs this year.

3. Madurais

Season Story: Despite collecting their first loss of the season this past week, the Maduarais sit in a commanding 3-1 position led by their sensational RB duo of Henry and Zeke. The Madurais are scoring just over 11 points per game over league average, and that’s pretty much all attributable to their RBs and a strong WR group who are overcoming glaring weaknesses at QB and TE.

Team MVP: Derrick Henry - Proving to be well worth the expensive auction draft price, Henry is the overall RB1 by a wide margin, scoring 20 points more than the RB2 on the season and scoring almost 15 points per game more than the RB30. To put that into perspective, only 7 RBs are scoring more than 15 points per game on the season. Insanity.

Schedule Analysis

If they had other teams schedules:

Also would have a losing record in no scenario, the most likely record for their start is 3-1 which is right where they’re at.

If other teams had their schedule:

Generous schedule so far for the Madurais as most teams in the league would be 3-1 with their schedule, and only 1 team would have a losing record with his schedule.

Very strong start to the season has you at 3-1 with your only loss coming to another league juggernaut the Sitarams. How would you assess your season so far?

Season is going well! We are happy that our strategy is panning out for the most part.

Your roster is very top-heavy - currently top-4 at WR, RB, and K, but bottom-3 at QB, TE, and DEF. What’s the plan for the roster moving forward - are you planning to continue leaning on your studs or diversifying the roster a bit?

Yes, the roster is very top heavy. Hopefully we get some support from the waiver wire, our top fantasy players, and from our bottom tier positions.

How do you capitalize on this solid start and securing the playoff spot?

We capitalize by pushing. 3-1 ain’t shit. Long season ahead- can’t get complacent.

4. Jeffrey

Season Story: After treading water for the first three weeks, a breakout performance last week has Jeffrey sitting near the top of the league at 3-1. He’s scoring roughly 7 points per game over league average, nearly all attributable to Kyler who’s amazing start to the season has Jeffrey scoring nearly 7 points per game over league average at the QB position. His WRs are also off to a solid start, with him scoring just over 4 points per game over league average there. It’s comical how bad (unlucky?) Jeffrey’s been at the kicker position as his weakness there is costing him over 3 points per game relative to league average. Lol.

Team MVP: Deebo Samuel - Probably the second biggest surprise on this list, Deebo Samuel has had an unbelievable start to the year scoring almost 20 points per game. Coming into the season, he was written off as the 3rd target (behind Aiyuk and Kittle) on run-heavy offense, boy did that prove to be wrong, and Jeffrey is reaping the benefits as Deebo is scoring almost 9 points per game over WR30 on the year.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

Interesting, even if he had other people’s schedules, he’d most likely be at 3-1. Maybe not as lucky as I thought.

If other teams had his schedule:

Jeffrey’s had a softer schedule to start the year, as no one in the league would have a losing record with Jeffrey’s schedule.

After somehow making your way to a 2-1 record after an underwhelming start to the season, your team finally blew up last week to get you to 3-1. How would you assess your season so far?

What can I say, my play was WR depth from the get go, all I needed was for my star RBs to show out. Saquads is finally looking like his pre ACL form so I think my team is looking strong from here. Have a couple injuries in my WR/TE position but I have depth to cover them. Only thing I’m concerned about is my RB2 slot rn.

You’re at or above average at pretty much every position besides Kicker, but injury concerns threaten to derail this strong start. What’s your plan for your roster moving forward - are you going to ride with your high injury risk guys or try to reduce the risk?

I’m trying to acquire another RB, because I have depth at both TE and WR, but pretty much no startable backup RB. But honestly if I have to play some duds at RB so be it. As long as I have my stars healthy for the playoffs.

What’s the gameplan to capitalizing on this 3-1 start and securing a position in the actual playoffs and not the toilet bowl for the first time in several years?

Don’t trade my stars away. Every season I always try to make some trades happen and my team always ends up worse for it. I’m going to try and keep my team as it is and let the algo do the work.

5. Methis

Season Story: Up and down start to the year has me sitting at 2-2, scoring just over 6 points per game over league average. My horrible WR group is costing me almost 9 points per game relative to league average, cancelling out the massive advantage my RBs are providing me. Without elite special teams (kicker and defense), my team would be completely middle of the pack.

Team MVP: Cordarelle Patterson - Hands down the biggest surprise on the year, what began as an innocuous waiver wire pick after Week 1 has turned into one of the biggest breakout seasons in recent history, as the 29-year old journeyman has found a career renaissance in Atlanta and currently sits as the RB3 on the year, adding a spark to a depleted RB corps on my team that has struggled with the losses of Mostert and McCaffrey. He’s scoring over 9 points per game more than the RB30 on the year, and I will continue riding this train until the wheels fall off.

Schedule Analysis

If we had other teams schedules:

Looks like we’ve been a bit unlucky as the most likely record we would’ve had with other schedules is 3-1.

If other teams had our schedule:

We’ve done fine for ourselves despite this schedule as only 3 teams would’ve had a better record than us with our schedule.

Up and down season has you at 2-2 on the year, with 2 sensational perforances and a couple of duds. How would you assess your season so far?

Bit of a mixed bag to start the year, but we have plenty of reason to be excited about the near future. We’ve overcome injuries to Mostert, McCaffrey, and Jeudy and poor picks in Aiyuk and Woods and still have shown the potential to put tons of points on the board on the backs of surprise players.

Solid depth throughout the roster but you’re getting killed at WR, sitting at second to last in the league at the position. How would you assess your roster?

Yeah no doubt WR has been a position of pain with the inconsistency of Amari Cooper and duds everywhere else. Krish and I still believe in our ability to identify WR talent, and help is on the way with Josh Gordon making his debut this week. We love the rest of our roster and don’t feel much pressure to make any moves.

What’s the plan to get to the top of the leaderboard and put yourself in strong position for the playoffs?

Sticking to the gameplan. Krish and I have a rock solid roster, and as long as we continue to stay active on the waiver wire and keep making smart start/sit decisions, we’ll be in great shape.

6. Varun

Season Story: Varun has got to be happy with where he stands up to this point, sitting at 2-2 despite scoring less than league average. His biggest achilles heel has been his WR group, losing 10 points per game relatibe to league average, made up in part by a strong RB group and defense.

Team MVP: D.K. Metcalf - On a team devoid of much talent at WR, Metcalf has offered some much needed stability, averaging 14 points per game. Even though Chubb is RB10 on the year (and Metcalf is WR14), Varun’s plentiful RB depth and scarce WR depth has rendered Metcalf much more valuable to his team up to this point.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

Full range of outcomes for Varun here, he lands with the most likely one sitting at 2-2.

If other teams had his schedule:

Looks like most people would be a little bit better than Varun if they had his schedule, again highlighting that he hasn’t been one of the stronger teams in the league to start the year.

Solid recovery the past couple of weeks has seen you climb to 2-2 after an 0-2 start, how would you assess your season so far?

I would like to view myself as the rightful king of the league. I wanted to give the other teams some cushion before I demolished them for the year. I have the best team in the league and it’s just too easy.

You’re at or above average at every position except WR, in which you’re dead last. How’re you liking your roster so far - feel the need to make any changes?

I don’t think I need any wide receivers. OBJ about to go coo and that’s that.

How do you plan to continue riding this momentum and secure a playoff spot?

I plan on securing a playoff spot with my long term history of appearing in the playoffs. History repeats himself and I know what it takes to be in the playoffs year to year.

7. Aman

Season Story: Mediocre would be the way to describe Aman’s season to date, as he’s within 4 points of league average at every position, showing no elite strenghts or glaring weaknesses and currently scoring roughly 2 points per game less than league average. He’s flashed sky high potential with two weeks of over 120 points, but he’s also shown a pretty low floor, indicating his team has amongst the highest variance in the league.

Team MVP: Justin Jefferson - Like with Varun, JJ’s strong start to the season has been absolutely essential in anchoring a mediocre WR corps. He currently sits at WR7 on the year averaging just over 16 points per game, good for a little over 5 points per game more than the WR30.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

Aman currently has the most likely record he would’ve had with anyone’s schedule, and with only 1 person’s schedule would he have had a losing record, showing he’s actually had a pretty solid start to the year.

If other teams had his schedule:

Wow only 3 teams would’ve had a winning record with his schedule, and yet Aman has emerged 2-2. Yet another positive sign for Aman’s team.

Up and down start to the season has you at 2-2 on the year, how would you assess your season so far?

Inconsistent - have a solid group of core players but when they don’t show up it’s a sorry showing.

You’re currently only above league average at the QB position, and pretty middle of the pack everywhere else - how do you like your roster moving forward? Are you going to stick with your guys or try changing things up?

Need more depth - I’ll be on the lookout for players to add/acquire.

What’s the gameplan to capitalizing on a .500 start and securing a playoff spot?

Pray that Bucs and Vikings are amazing on offense every week - heartbeat of my team.

8. Shivang

Season Story: Yikes would be the operative word to use here, as Shivang is currently scoring over 12 points per game less than league average, somehow sitting at 2-2 on the year. This is despite Kelce helping Shivang score 6 points per week over league average at the TE position, as he’s getting shafted at the QB, WR, and RB positions. Let’s see if he can turn it around.

Team MVP: Travis Kelce - no surprise here, Kelce continues to prove that he’s ageless, once again setting the standard at the TE position, averaging just over 15 points per game, almost 7 and a half points per game more than the TE12. He’s been one of the few bright spots on a team that’s struggling to find its identity 4 weeks into the year.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

One of only 2 teams in the league that wouldn’t have had a winning record with anyone else’s schedule, Shivang’s pretty lucky he’s sitting at 2-2.

If other teams had his schedule:

Tough look for Shivang here as all but 2 other teams would’ve had a better record than Shivang with his schedule. He’s had by far the easiest draw.

Despite having the lowest points scored in the league, you sit at 2-2 on the back of a very friendly schedule. How would you assess the start to the season?

It’s been a shaky start to say the least. Fantasy is no guarantee, though. Week-to-week lots can change. In years past I have had solid rocks who have faded. This year i’ve been forced to adapt and improvise from the jump. I look forward to the continued challenge and hope my team can continue to perform the way it did last week.

Your only real position of strength is TE, but besides that, you’re bottom-4 in the league everywhere else. What’s the gameplan to improving your roster and getting back to the top of the league?

Last week was wild. Despite TE being my main perceived area of strength, it was the other positions which carried me. I’m just gonna continue to stay locked in and focus on setting the best possible lineup week-to-week.

9. Anant

Season Story: After a 130+ performance after week 1, Anant’s been sliding ever since, now falling to 1-3 on the year. While his RB’s have been predictably bad to start the year (costing him over 10 points per game relative to league average), the true surprise is the futility of his WR group which was supposed to be his strength but is scoring 4 points per week less than league average. Another surprise - Tucker helping Anant score almost 5 points per game over league average at the K position. That’s the 8th biggest positional advantage in the league!

Team MVP: T.J Hockenson / Ja’Marr Chase - these two are tied in the value that they bring to Anant’s team. While Hockenson has cooled off after a monstrous start to the season, he continues to be a rock solid starter at a scarce TE position. Ja’Marr Chase has been a very pleasant surprise considering the relatively disappointing starts to the season for CeeDee Lamb and Allen Robinson, as Chase currently sits at WR8 on the season scoring just over 15 points per game.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

Even with most other schedules, Anant would be sitting at 1-3 on the year, showing his record accurately reflects his performance till date.

If other teams had his schedule:

Yes Anant’s struggling, but damn he’s had a brutal schedule to start the year - only 4 teams would have a better record with his schedule.

Difficult start to the season has seen you slip to 1-3 after starting the year with a bang - what’s gone wrong?

Considering the last 3 teams we faced each put up at least 122 points, there’s not much you can do. Given the nature of fantasy, poor performances are inevitable for any team. so the way I see it is that we may as well get the bad games out early against high scoring opponents.

Your weakness at RB is well documented, but your WR trio has also disappointed as you’re only 5th in the league at scoring from that position. What’s the plan to improving at these critical positions?

Obviously underperformances across the board are worrisome, and as a result we are currently engaged in trade talks with many teams across the league. I’m not ready to completely give up on my guys, but we’re definitely looking to change things up.

What’s the gameplan to getting back to the top of the league?

Moving forward, we just gotta take it week by week. It’s a long season. extra game this year. We’ll be back in contention. Positive regression baby.

10. Ishan

Season Story: Disappointing start to the year has Ishan sitting at 1-3 scoring more than 6 points per game less than league average. Despite having two of the top 5 drafted WRs on his team, he’s scoring over 3 points less than league average at that position, the single biggest shocker for his team to start the year. Despite that, he’d be scoring above average if he had even average QB play, but his league-worst QB group is scoring only 13 points per game, good for almost 8 points per week less than league average at that position.

Team MVP: Austin Ekeler - a flying start to the season for Ekeler has him sitting as the overall RB2, scoring almost 20 points per game. As one of the only three running back’s on Ishan’s roster (his third RB being Jarret Patterson – who is he?), Ekeler is essentially priceless for Ishan.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

Looks like Ishan is slighly unlucky he’s at 1-3, as he’d be at 2-2 with most other schedules.

If other teams had his schedule:

Not the best look for Ishan as 6 teams would have had a winning record with Ishan’s schedule, yet he sits at 1-3.

Disappointing start to the season slipping to 1-3 on the year - what’s gone wrong so far?

Nothing has gone wrong with my team… just close losses that could swing either way. Injuries also probably ruined my season.

You currently sit near the bottom of the league in both QB and TE scoring - what’s the plan to improve these positions and getting back to the top of the league?

Nothing too different will be done to my team. Just being patient with my players and riding the hot hand for QB.

11. Anish

Season Story: Lot of red on the board for Anish as he’s scoring below league average at literally every position besides WR, resulting in him scoring nearly 12 points per game less than league average, resulting in a 1-3 start to the year. The good thing for him I guess is that he’s within 4 points of league average at every position, making a positive turnaround a little more likely.

Team MVP: D.J. Moore - a breakout season for D.J Moore has powered him to the overall WR4 on the year scoring over 18 points per game (nearly 8 points per game over the WR30), anchoring a WR corps that filled with questions marks past Moore and Godwin.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

Yep 1-3 is a pretty fair record for Anish as that’s what he most likely would’ve had with a different schedule.

If other teams had his schedule:

Like with Anant, despite starting the year pretty poorly, Anish has definitely been the victim of a brutal schedule, as only 1 person would’ve had a winning record with his schedule.

Brutal start to the year for you as you have yet to clear the 105 points threshold. What’s gone wrong so far?

The main thing that’s gone wrong has been inconsistent performance, especially from the bottom half of the roster. With virtually no contribution on a weekly basis from kicker/Def, its been tough. Also, getting having all my depth destroyed by injury has been annoying (Ettiene, Landry, Chark..)

Currently, you sit near the bottom of the league in points scored from your TE, K, DEF, and QB. What’s the plan to improve these positions - do you believe in your guys or do you have roster changes planned?

I believe in my guys, we’ll see what happens. Kickers and Def’s are streaky so hopefully get some good luck.

What’s your gameplan for climbing up to the top of the league?

Planning on riding out the season, it has only been a short time. I’m down to make moves and I’ll look to do anything to improve the competitiveness of the roster.

12. Kishan

Season Story: Despite having a sensational WR group that’s scoring nearly 7 points per week over league average, Kishan’s awful RB and TE group is costing him heavily resulting in him scoring over 7 points per week less than league average. While he’s undeserving of an 0-4 start, he’s got a massive hole to climb out of to get back into the season, and step 1 is finding an RB2 to pair with Aaron Jones.

Team MVP: Tyreek Hill - shocking that Kishan is 0-4 despite owning two of the five most valuable players in fantasy up to this point. While Aaron Jones has been unbelievable to start the year, Tyreek Hill scores as the more valuable of the two to Kishan, scoring over 21 points per game powering him to be the overall WR2 on the year, just behind Cooper Kupp. Already with 2 weeks over 30 points, Hill offers week-winning upside that few, if any, in fantasy can reach.

Schedule Analysis

If he had other teams schedules:

The most obvious victim of bad luck in the league, he would’ve had a better record in 9 out of the other 11 schedules in the league.

If other teams had his schedule:

Definitely a victim of a brutal schedule, no one would’ve had a winning record with Kishan’s draw.

Kishan declined to comment.

Additional Charts

Positional Points above League Average - Leaders

Jeffrey’s the only one on here twice, impressive.

Positional Points above League Average - Laggards

Shivang and Kishan are both on here twice, yikes.

This chart shows people’s positional strengths/weaknesses above league average. It’s just the per owner numbers shown above thrown into one plot divided by the positions. This illustrates positional value - RB/WR are clearly the two most important positions (since we see the most variance - both advantages and disadvantages) while TE, K, and DEF don’t really move the needle that much (only a couple points of difference between owners). QB is an interesting one, didn’t expect there to be a higher variance for QB than for TE - this year it really pays to have a rock solid QB.

This chart shows the distribution of scores in wins versus losses. Looks like ~110 points is the inflection point where you’re more likely to lose vs win. >120 points virtually guarantees a win, while <90 virtually guarantees a loss.

This chart shows the distribution of margins of victory. Most matches are decided by 20 points or less with a few blowouts mixed in.